A Rare 'Super El Niño' Is Brewing—Here's How It Might Affect the Weather

Following a brutal winter across much of the U.S., a super El Niño is now developing, with the effects likely to persist through the end of the year and perhaps beyond.

This natural climate phenomenon is a periodic warming of water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This is accompanied by low-level surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator ("easterly winds"), but instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing from west to east ("westerly winds"). All of this can affect global weather patterns for months, including rainfall and temperatures from summer through winter.

According to The Weather Channel, the majority of model forecasts are currently predicting at least a 50 percent chance that this year's El Niño could become a "super El Niño." This phenomenon occurs when ocean temperatures in a particular region of the tropical Pacific are more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above average.

This year could eventually top out at least 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit above average by autumn, placing it among the most intense super El Niños on record. There have been only five super El Niños since 1950, the last one occurring from 2015 to 2016, per The Weather Channel.

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"Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s," Paul Roundy, a University of Albany professor and El Niño expert, recently posted on X.

If it becomes as strong as model forecasts are currently predicting, an El Niño of this magnitude can impact global weather. For example, eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons are typically more active during strong El Niños, The Weather Channel reports.

Additionally, a stronger El Niño tends to bring a wetter winter across the southern states, from parts of California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast. This could also mean more snow across these areas, if the air is cold enough. On the other hand, much of the northern U.S., from the Northwest and Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains and Midwest, typically experiences a milder and drier winter during a super El Niño.

Overall, El Niños typically coincide with higher global temperatures because ocean heat is released into the atmosphere, increasing the likelihood of record warmth.