Brace Yourself: An Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season Is on the Way

Get ready for another intense hurricane season. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) most recent outlook. This year's Atlantic hurricane activity is expected to be above normal.

The agency is forecasting that there will be 13-19 named storms. Of those, 6-10 are predicted to become hurricanes (with winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes, which are classified as category 3 or stronger, with winds of 111 mph or higher.

During an average year, the Atlantic Basin usually experiences 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-average season this year and a 30% chance of a near-average season.

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm in a statement.

Last year, Hurricane Helene brought torrential rainfall to a large region that included most of Georgia, western North and South Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and southern Virginia, leading to extensive and unprecedented flash flooding.

The season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, is expected to be above normal due to several factors, including warmer than average ocean temperatures, low wind shear (which allows warm, moist water vapor to rise, fueling the hurricane), and the potential for more activity from the West African Monsoon, which is a starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.

Forecasters are also keeping an eye on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (known as ENSO) over the Pacific Ocean, which has entered a neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is in control. The ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to remain through the peak of hurricane season in September.

NOAA’s National Weather Service director Ken Graham said, “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens."

NOAA will update its Atlantic outlook in early August, before the peak of the season. Forecasters have also released their prediction for the eastern Pacific Basin, saying that a below-average season is most likely.