Sweater Weather or a Heatwave? Fall's AccuWeather Forecast Keeps You Guessing

As we move into fall next month, some in the U.S. will begin to experience cooler temperatures and sweater weather, while others will still be dealing with lingering summer heat and tropical storms, according to the latest AccuWeather forecast.

"Areas in the middle of the country, including Kansas to Wisconsin, will experience very pleasant and calm stretches of fall weather that will be perfect for fairs, festivals, and outdoor events," Paul Pastelok, lead long-range expert for AccuWeather, said in a statement. He adds that other areas across the eastern and western U.S. will face summer-like heat and humidity, including much of the East Coast, from the Carolinas to parts of the Northeast and even New England.

For reference, meteorological fall starts on September 1, while astronomical autumn starts on September 22. But when it actually feels like fall depends on where you live.

North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan are forecasted to get cooler air early in the season. "We expect some pretty strong cold fronts to come through parts of the Upper Midwest and northern Plains that could bring a wintry blast with flurries a few weeks earlier than what you’d typically see," Pastelok reports.

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There's also a renewed risk of severe weather at the start of the season, with heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible from the central Gulf Coast into the Appalachians and parts of the Midwest. These regions may see a moderate risk for damaging storms and tornadoes, especially in October and November, according to AccuWeather experts.

"Plenty of warm and moist air is forecast to continue surging from the Gulf into the center of the country this autumn. When it clashes with cooler air from Canada plunging in from the north, we will likely see rounds of severe storms and possibly more tornadoes in the center of the country, especially in October," Pastelok reports. "The risk of severe weather is predicted to shift east into the Tennessee Valley and the interior Southeast during the month of November."

AccuWeather long-range experts also forecast more tropical storms and hurricanes developing and potentially rapidly intensifying near coastal cities from late summer throughout autumn, while parts of central and northern California, central and eastern Oregon, as well as western and central Idaho, face a very high risk of fires this fall.

In addition, the wildfires burning across Canada and the western U.S. will continue to bring smoke to parts of the Midwest and Northeast this fall. "Millions of people from Minneapolis to Chicago will likely see more rounds of wildfire smoke and a hazy sky into the middle of the fall season. The wind and weather patterns will continue to carry wildfire smoke high in the atmosphere from the western U.S. and Canada over parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, into the Northeast," Pastelok explains.